A new study by the IBM Institute for Business Value predicts that the next 5 years will hold more change for the advertising industry than the previous 50 did (here for executive summary, and here for full pdf report of the study).
Based on a survey of 2,400 consumers and feedback from 80 advertising execs, they see four change drivers that will shift control within the Industry:
Attention – consumers are increasingly in control of where they direct their attention. And not just by using Tivo-like products which enable them to skip ads and watch what they want when they want it, but because of a fundamental shift from TV usage to PC usage. 71% of the survey respondents use the Internet more than 2 hours a day, with only 48% spending equivalent time watching TV. 19% spend six hours or more on a PC with just 9% watching that much TV.
Creativity – consumers now have the tools to create their own user-generated and peer-delivered content. User generated content sites are already the top destinations for viewing online video, attracting 39% of the survey respondents.
Measurement – advertising executives predict that 20% of all advertising dollars will shift from impression-based models to impact-based models within 3 years.
Advertising inventories – ad space is increasingly available through open exchanges instead of proprietary channels that were controlled by broadcasters.
Based on these drivers, and considering that two of them have a high degree of uncertainty – the attention driver and the open inventory driver – the study envisions 4 possible scenarios for 2012:
Continued Evolution: One to many still dominates but thanks to DVR’s, increased penetration of CGC and better measurement techniques, a greater portion of direct marketing dollars gets allocated to channels typically used for brand oriented advertising.
Open Exchange: Not much changes in this scenario other than most inventory gets bought through open exchanges.
Consumer Choice: In this scenario the user takes full control of the way ads get viewed and filtered.
Ad Marketplace: In this one the consumer choose preferred ad types as part of self-programming their media choices and are more involved with the creation and distribution of the ads.
Here is how the study predicts advertising spend allocation will evolve over the next 3 years: